URALSIB Capital IC: General Partner in the Round-Table Discussion «Post-Recession Russia: Challenges and Opportunities of the Decade»
A round-table discussion titled: “Post-Recession Russia: Challenges and Opportunities of the Decade” took place in Moscow on 26 April, 2011. The event was organized by Vedomosti, with URALSIB Capital as the general partner.
In the course of the discussion experts exchanged views on risks pertaining to the evolution of the Russian economy as well as the probable economic modernization scenarios, resources needed to propel “resetting” to a higher qualitative level, current priorities of the national government and the necessary regulatory efforts.
Mr. Alexei Devyatov, Chief Economist of URALSIB Capital, spoke at the event on risks, both short-term and long-term, associated with various models of Russian economic development.
Alexei Devyatov regards the trends in Russian economic development for the next two-three years as largely positive, albeit there are still some issues pending. He believes that future growth rate depends first and foremost on the extent to which the Russian government will succeed in coping with the institutional challenges faced by the country – namely, high bureaucracy and corruption levels and a poor investment climate. “Investors thinking long-term have become rather negative in their attitude to the prospects of Russian economy, Devyatov noted. They suffer from high levels of corruption and an increasing tax burden; they don’t feel their investments are safe. These concerns result in outflows of FDI from the country”.
Alexei Devyatov finished his presentation by drawing the attention of the audience to the sources of long-term risks for the Russian economy, such as the lack of incentives to improve institutions and modernize the national economy, high oil prices and the demographic situation. “The economically active population is going to shrink by around 10% over the current decade. This factor alone, unless some countermeasures are taken, might decrease Russian GDP by 1-1.5% in 2013-2018”, he warned.
27 April, 2011
