URALSIB Capital: Company valuations

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RUS / ENG

Company valuations (09/17/2009)

Company			$	$	%	$ Mln	$'000	Tr',%	Ch,%		07	08E	09E	10E	07	08E	09E	10E	%	07	07	07	Val**

OIL & GAS

Gazprom	GSPBEX	Buy	6.15	8.9	45	####	191	-	(4.6)	R	4.7	4.9	5.2	4.8	3.1	4.1	4.2	3.9	0.2	1.0	0.9	1.3	18.6

LUKOIL	LKOH	Hold	60.00	72	20	51,034	644	-	(3.2)	R	5.6	6.2	7.2	5.8	3.4	3.8	4.3	3.8	2.7	0.5	1.0	0.5	647.3

Rosneft	ROSN	Hold	7.92	7.7	(3)	83,938	318	-	(3.2)	R	7.6	10.7	13.2	13.3	6.2	7.3	8.1	8.2	1.3	1.2	2.1	1.5	####

Gazprom Neft	SIBN	Buy	5.55	6.1	10	26,314	130	-	0.0	R	5.6	8.3	8.0	6.7	3.7	5.7	5.4	4.8	8.9	0.8	1.9	0.8	601.8

TNK-BP Holding	tnbp	UR	1.84	UR	n/a	29,811	59	-	0.0	R	4.7	n/a	n/a	n/a	3.2	n/a	n/a	n/a	10.6	0.7	1.5	0.7	444.4

Slavneft	slav	Hold	0.73	1.1	56	3,447	0.0	-	0.0	R	7.1	3.4	3.2	3.0	2.6	1.9	1.9	1.8	7.0	0.4	0.6	0.5	196.1

Surgutneftegaz	SNGS	Hold	0.95	0.86	(10)	37,290	197	-	0.0	R	7.1	6.6	7.4	6.9	8.9	5.0	5.5	5.2	6.3	1.9	1.0	1.8	596.0

Tatneft	TATN	UR	4.45	UR	n/a	9,979	251	-	(8.6)	R	25.8	n/a	n/a	n/a	5.9	n/a	n/a	n/a	0.4	0.6	1.1	0.6	421.4

NOVATEK	NVTK	Buy	4.75	7.7	62	14,422	119	-	0.0	R	15.7	15.5	10.1	7.6	10.2	10.9	7.4	5.7	2.1	4.5	4.4	4.7	19.8

Bashneft	BANE	Buy	15.88	11.0	(31)	2,985	54	-	0.8	R	7.0	Neg	37.6	7.9	3.2	Neg	6.4	3.6	1.3	0.6	0.9	0.5	209.1

Eurasia Drilling	EDCL LI	NR	16.50	NR	n/a	2,378	429	-	(5.7)	R	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

Integra	INTE LI	NR	3.30	NR	n/a	454	953	-	(8.8)	R	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

C.A.T. oil	O2C GR	NR	n/a	NR	n/a	n/a	n/a	-	n/a	R	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

Transneft	TRNFP	NR	900.00	NR	n/a	4,198	178	-	(3.2)	R	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

Kazanorgsintez	KZOS	NR	0.18	NR	n/a	331	47	-	0.0	R	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

Novoil	nunz	NR	1.30	NR	n/a	1,068	52	-	13.0	R	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

Ufaneftekhim	UFNC	NR	3.10	NR	n/a	928	94	-	(3.1)	R	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

UTILITIES

MOESK	MSRS	UR	0.047	UR	n/a	2,289	44	-	0.0	R	13.7	n/a	n/a	3.1	5.5	n/a	n/a	1.6	n/a	0.8	n/a	1.2	n/a

RusHydro	HYDR	Hold	0.034	0.039	14	8,772	311	-	(7.0)	R	Neg	9.8	8.8	5.1	6.1	5.5	4.6	2.9	0.0	2.0	0.6	1.8	0

OGK-1	OGKA	Hold	0.025	0.025	1	1,121	42	-	(3.5)	R	3.7	13.7	34.7	37.1	8.0	7.2	9.2	7.5	0.0	0.6	0.8	0.7	0

OGK-2	OGKB	Hold	0.037	0.027	(27)	1,178	37	-	(2.7)	R	Neg	244.3	45.7	29.8	51.2	18.9	11.9	9.2	0.0	0.7	0.8	0.8	0

OGK-3	OGKC	Hold	0.057	0.047	(17)	2,683	53	-	0.0	R	9.8	11.4	13.0	14.9	5.8	6.9	8.1	6.7	0.0	1.7	0.7	0.7	0

OGK-4	OGKD	Buy	0.050	0.054	9	3,151	58	-	(3.8)	R	12.9	39.1	136.9	10.2	11.5	12.2	10.0	3.5	0.0	2.1	1.0	1.4	0

OGK-5	OGKE	Hold	0.072	0.059	(18)	2,529	96	-	(19.8)	R	33.4	66.5	111.6	11.5	12.1	14.9	12.4	5.6	0.0	1.5	1.0	1.6	0

OGK-6	OGKF	Buy	0.029	0.027	(4)	919	34	-	0.0	R	Neg	25.1	382.4	Neg	85.7	5.1	5.5	6.7	0.0	0.5	0.4	0.5	0

TELECOMS

Rostelecom	RTKM	NR	8.94	1.5	(83)	7,000	196	-	27.7	R	14.3	56.7	49.9	54.5	16.5	12.8	15.5	14.4	0.6	2.6	3.5	2.5	n/a

MGTS	MGTS	Sell	14.75	16.0	8	1,473	44	-	0.0	R	10.8	9.1	10.8	10.7	5.8	4.8	5.8	5.8	n/a	1.9	1.3	2.2	0

CentreTelecom	ESMO	Hold	0.52	0.54	5	1,002	38	-	0.0	R	6.6	10.2	7.1	7.3	2.9	3.7	3.4	3.4	0.0	0.7	1.5	1.2	241

N-W Telecom	SPTL	Buy	0.44	0.6	34	473	32	-	(5.4)	R	4.6	8.0	4.9	4.7	2.3	2.8	2.4	2.4	0.0	0.5	0.5	0.9	205

SouthTelecom	KUBN	Hold	0.08	0.08	9	288	91	-	0.0	R	Neg	Neg	22.8	7.1	3.9	4.5	3.8	3.6	0.0	0.3	1.0	1.1	224

Uralsvyazinform	URSI	Buy	0.025	0.042	68	944	139	-	(6.3)	R	9.3	11.3	7.7	6.9	3.1	3.8	3.4	3.4	0.0	0.6	1.2	1.1	186

VolgaTelecom	NNSI	Buy	2.11	3.7	74	637	57	-	(9.4)	R	5.5	8.4	5.5	5.5	2.1	2.6	2.3	2.3	0.0	0.5	0.7	0.8	126

Sibirtelecom	ENCO	Buy	0.04	0.06	77	520	37	-	0.0	R	8.5	6.6	4.4	3.8	2.3	2.7	2.4	2.3	0.0	0.3	0.8	0.8	138

Dalsvyaz	ESPK	Buy	2.85	5.6	95	334	59	-	0.0	R	3.7	7.7	5.7	5.1	2.1	2.7	2.4	2.3	0.0	0.5	1.1	0.8	324

MTS	MBT US	Buy	43.10	68.0	58	17,182	68,250	-	(8.9)	R	8.9	8.7	7.3	5.9	3.9	4.6	4.0	3.6	0.0	1.7	4.2	2.0	312

VimpelCom	VIP US	Buy	16.55	23.0	39	21,966	63,265	-	(8.0)	R	37.1	12.7	9.5	7.7	5.3	6.2	5.1	4.6	0.0	2.2	4.8	2.8	630

AFK Sistema	SSA LI	Buy	16.70	25.0	50	8,058	4,666	-	(2.3)	R	130.0	55.6	18.1	8.7	2.8	3.2	2.7	2.4	0.0	0.5	n/a	0.9	n/a

Comstar-UTS	CMST LI	Buy	5.21	8.1	55	1,981	2,821	-	(2.6)	R	10.9	12.2	8.4	7.7	3.9	4.5	3.7	3.5	0.0	1.2	0.9	1.7	n/a

METALS & MINING

Norilsk Nickel	GMKN	UR	136.00	UR	n/a	24,605	613	-	(8.1)	R	Neg	n/a	n/a	n/a	4.7	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	1.8	n/a	2.0	n/a

Severstal	SVST LI	Sell	7.35	3.0	(59)	7,407	7,039	-	(7.5)	R	3.6	Neg	Neg	4.2	2.3	52.4	9.3	4.7	n/a	0.3	n/a	0.6	649

Novolipetsk	NLMK LI	Hold	24.73	20.0	(19)	14,821	8,769	-	(9.8)	R	6.5	29.0	16.1	9.4	3.2	9.9	7.8	4.8	n/a	1.3	n/a	1.3	1417

Mechel	MTL US	Sell	16.23	3.2	(80)	6,756	37,799	-	(11.5)	R	5.9	Neg	73.8	9.5	3.9	15.8	11.2	5.5	0.0	0.7	n/a	1.2	1971

Evraz	EVR LI	Hold	24.93	23.0	(8)	9,162	15,636	-	(8.5)	R	4.9	42.5	11.8	4.5	2.8	9.1	7.2	4.5	0.0	0.4	n/a	0.9	1082

Magnitogorsky MK	MMK LI	Buy	9.15	8.8	(4)	7,865	3,238	-	(6.3)	R	7.3	Neg	128.5	8.7	3.3	8.5	6.3	3.3	n/a	0.7	n/a	0.7	605

TMK	TMKS LI	UR	17.90	UR	n/a	3,907	2,642	-	(8.0)	R	19.7	n/a	n/a	n/a	6.9	n/a	n/a	n/a	0.0	0.7	n/a	1.2	n/a

Polyus Gold	PLZL	Buy	53.80	59.0	10	9,584	222	-	(2.2)	R	158.8	23.4	18.3	15.9	20.5	14.5	11.5	9.7	0.0	8.8	3.4	8.2	n/a

CONSUMER GOODS & RETAIL

X5 Retail Group	FIVE LI	Hold	22.20	18.0	(19)	6,028	5,301	-	(4.6)	R	54.2	48.6	19.9	13.9	9.7	10.5	8.1	6.5	0.0	0.7	3.7	0.9	n/a

Magnit	MGNT	Buy	54.60	68.0	25	4,532	185	-	(1.6)	R	24.1	17.0	11.8	10.1	12.0	9.4	6.8	5.8	0.0	0.8	5.4	0.9	n/a

7th Continent	SCON	Sell	8.90	6.1	(31)	668	34	-	(7.8)	R	16.2	19.7	14.9	6.0	7.0	7.0	5.4	4.2	0.0	0.4	1.0	0.6	n/a

Dixy Group	DIXY	UR	6.57	UR	n/a	565	23	-	(2.2)	R	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

Wimm-Bill-Dann	WBD US	Hold	65.35	53.0	(19)	2,875	6,957	-	(7.1)	R	28.6	38.4	18.4	15.9	9.0	11.2	8.9	8.0	0.0	1.0	4.5	1.2	2.2

Lebedyansky	LEKZ	UR	n/a	UR	n/a	n/a	n/a	-	n/a	R	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

Nutritek	NTRI	UR	4.20	UR	n/a	67	42	-	0.0	R	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

Baltika	PKBA	UR	27.00	UR	n/a	4,404	17	-	0.0	R	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

BANKS															P/BV:	P/BV:	P/BV:	P/BV:

Sberbank	SBER	UR	2.25	UR	n/a	49,896	4,078	-	(2.6)	R	12.7	n/a	n/a	n/a	2.0	n/a	n/a	n/a	0.0	n/a	2.0	n/a	n/a

Vozrozhdeniye	VZRZ	Hold	34.50	17.3	(50)	837	68	-	(1.4)	R	6.6	65.5	26.2	10.0	1.6	1.7	1.7	1.5	1.4	n/a	1.6	n/a	n/a

VTB	VTBR LI	Sell	4.09	2.0	(51)	14,203	13,248	-	(5.8)	R	67.0	Neg	31.2	14.6	1.1	1.3	1.2	1.2	0.0	n/a	1.1	n/a	n/a

REAL ESTATE

LSR	LSRG LI	Buy	6.25	8.2	31	2,927	853	-	(3.8)	R	Neg	Neg	119.5	16.2	7.7	14.8	11.8	7.4	0.0	1.5	2.5	2.0	n/a

Open Investments	OPIN	NR	60.20	NR	n/a	920	37	-	0.0	R	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

AFI Development	AFID LI	NR	1.95	NR	n/a	1,026	335	-	(11.4)	R	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

PIK Group	PIK LI	NR	3.67	NR	n/a	1,810	1,080	-	(11.1)	R	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

Sistema HALS	HALS LI	NR	1.69	NR	n/a	379	-	-	(6.1)	R	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

					Up/ Down						P/E 07	P/E 08E	P/E 09E	P/E 10E	EV/EBITDA 07	EV/EBITDA 08E	EV/EBITDA 09E	EV/EBITDA 10E			P/S	P/BV	EV/S

RUSSIA WEIGHTED AVERAGE*					Up/ Down						P/E	0.0	0.0	0.0	EV/EBITDA	0.0	0.0	0.0			P/S	P/BV	EV/S

OIL & GAS					n/a						####	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A			###	#N/A	#N/A

UTILITIES					0.0						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0

TELECOMS Fixed					18.2						####	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A			###	#N/A	#N/A

TELECOMS Mobile					n/a						####	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	10.3	10.7	5.1	#N/A			###	#N/A	#N/A

MACHINERY					47.5						13.1	33.6	27.6	27.7	7.3	7.4	7.4	7.1			1.3	1.4	1.4

METALS & MINING					47.2						17.4	11.5	8.5	6.9	5.0	5.9	4.7	4.2			2.0	4.5	2.4

CONSUMER GOODS & RETAIL					0.0						####	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A			###	#N/A	#N/A

TRANSPORTATION					(0.3)						####	######	######	######	3.7	20.4	14.0	8.3			1.9	0.5	1.7

FERTILISERS					(4.2)						####	######	######	######	12.1	12.3	9.3	7.7			0.6	3.1	0.7

IT & MEDIA					(62.5)						####	######	######	######	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A			0.4	3.8	2.4

BANKS					2.4						9.5	19.8	11.4	7.5	5.4	12.9	8.3	6.2			2.8	5.7	3.1

* Accounting Standards: G - GAAP, I - IAS, R - RAS
** Industry Valuation: for Utilities - EV/Capacity (MWht), for Oil - EV/Reserves (bbl), for Gas -- EV/Reserves ('000 cm), for Telecoms - EV/ALIS (for Cellulars - EV/Subscriber)
*** Upside potential is calculated without Utilities